This is an abbreviated version of our quarterly review of the macro and investment outlook. Round table conversation between Roger Conrad, Elliott Gue and our London Contributor
North American Railroads are a very old industry in the early stages of a renaissance, fueled by unprecedented efficiency, long-term growth of global trade and rising demand for greener modes of freight transport. Railroad stocks offer a unique combination of safety, growth and income for conservative and aggressive investors alike.
Since our last deep dive into the sector in February 2018, our recommended yieldcos have been big winners. Here’s our outlook and top picks now that this high yielding, high growth sector has come of age.
Elliott Gue, Roger Conrad and the London Contributor conduct a quarterly review of the macroeconomic and investment outlook
Real estate investment trusts are hitting new highs but there’s still value in this high yielding sector. We highlight 8 REIT recommendations, and 8 others to sell now.
In this issue we examine the improving macro outlook for the United States and China and how this had led to EPS forecast upgrades by Street analysts and improving sentiment within the global fund manager community. With the prospect of a bear market essentially removed, we recommend that investors worry less about risk levels in their portfolios and more about the type of exposure within risk assets.
A lot has changed over the past 4 months. As recently as November 7th, the Fed Funds futures market was pricing in a better than 1-in-3 shot the upper bound of the central bank’s target range for rates would be 3.25% or higher by the end of 2019.
In this issue we look at the prospects for the U.S. economy examining leading indicators and cyclical sectors such as housing and auto manufacturing. We also look at the fixed income market for hints as to investors’ views on the economy and interpret the slope of the yield curve as well as moves in credit markets.
We examine the behavior of credit spreads ahead of major stock market peaks and discuss the early warning signs they often provide. We then discuss what credit spreads suggest about the current market cycle.
Our latest take on the outlook for the economy and markets including a discussion with our London-based Contributor.
Rising interest rates, a stock market in its 10th year and the rise of ETFs have created a challenging but still greatly rewarding environment for income investing. This issue, we’re launching an Actively Managed Income Portfolio to take advantage, as well as to prepare income seekers for the next phase of the market cycle. We discuss the current environment for income investing and key dividend paying sectors as well as strategy and tactics. And we introduce the first members of our weighted model $100,000 portfolio, which can be applied to investments of any size.
This is an update on bond market developments and their implications for the stock market
High yield bonds have dramatically outperformed investment grade debt this year, thanks to a stronger economy, a dearth of defaults, the recovery of the energy sector and a shortage of supply caused by fewer new issues and ETF buying. Several of these trends appear near to running their course. But there are still strong values among individual high yield bonds and even mutual funds. This briefing highlights a basket of high yield bond buys that should continue producing strong returns and high yields even if the current positive macro environment sours.