Elliott Gue, Roger Conrad and the London Contributor conduct a quarterly review of the macroeconomic and investment outlook
In this issue we examine the improving macro outlook for the United States and China and how this had led to EPS forecast upgrades by Street analysts and improving sentiment within the global fund manager community. With the prospect of a bear market essentially removed, we recommend that investors worry less about risk levels in their portfolios and more about the type of exposure within risk assets.
In this issue we look at the prospects for the U.S. economy examining leading indicators and cyclical sectors such as housing and auto manufacturing. We also look at the fixed income market for hints as to investors’ views on the economy and interpret the slope of the yield curve as well as moves in credit markets.
We examine the behavior of credit spreads ahead of major stock market peaks and discuss the early warning signs they often provide. We then discuss what credit spreads suggest about the current market cycle.
Our latest take on the outlook for the economy and markets including a discussion with our London-based Contributor.
This is an update on bond market developments and their implications for the stock market