The Power of the Big Idea: 2 Profit Themes We’re Recommending Right Now
Dear Fellow Investor,
How do you create real wealth in the financial markets?
It’s not by generating the most stock ideas, designing a “Black Box” system to beat the market or even through nimble timing, jumping in and out of stocks or ETFs.
You beat the market with a just a few “Big Ideas.”
In my experience, Pareto’s 80/20 principle applies perfectly to investing: Over the long haul, 80% of returns and income will be the result of just 20% of these big investment ideas and themes.
I believe that’s true of even the world’s greatest and best-known investors. Just consider:
Warren Buffett is widely regarded the world’s most successful living investor and he’s made a lot of great calls over a career spanning more than 60 years.
However, over the past decade, an outsized portion of his gains have come from just two big ideas: Recognizing the fundamental changes in the railroad business with the purchase of Burlington Northern Santa Fe in 2009 and buys of financials like Bank of America and Goldman Sachs at the height of the financial crisis in 2008.
In his 1994 Chairman’s Letter to shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett put it this way: “Our investments continue to be few in number and simple in concept.”
Peter Lynch, the legendary manager of Fidelity’s Magellan fund who generated a market-crushing 29.2% annualized return between 1977 and 1990, called them “ten-baggers,” stocks with the potential to generate 10-fold gains for investors.
In his now-famous bestseller One Up on Wall Street: How to Use What You Already Know to Make Money in the Market he credited his ability to identify just a few of these “big ideas” for his superior long-term performance.
Simply put, big ideas aren’t common.
Maybe (if you’re lucky) you’ll identify 2 to 3 powerful, high-conviction investing trends each year and even fewer (far fewer) life-changing, multi-year megatrends and potential “ten-baggers.”.
After nearly two decades in the financial analysis and research business I can think of just a handful of these megatrends on which I’ve built my career including:
More than twelve years ago, in a book published by Prentice Hall entitled The Silk Road to Riches, my co-authors and I correctly predicted a surge in energy demand from China and India would overwhelm global supply, driving an unprecedented bull market in oil prices and tremendous gains for energy investors…
Being early to recognize the crucial importance of infrastructure in the North American energy markets and the attraction of high-yield tax-advantaged Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) like Enterprise Products Partners years before these stocks were popular…
Using research on agricultural cycles going back to 18th century England, I called a “tipping point” in global demand for meat that propelled the prices of key feed commodities like corn and soybeans to record highs in 2012, producing gains of 763% in fertilizer producer Potash Corporation, 94% in oilseed processor Bunge and 296.4% in an under-the-radar palm oil producer based in Belgium…
Calling the bottom in global stock markets back in 2008-09 and recommending names like consumer finance firm Discover Financial Services up 582.8% since the end of 2008, railroad giant Union Pacific up 387.1%, and EVEN home improvement giant Home Depot up 345.6%…
Seeing the big turn in the energy cycle back in 2014, predicting the fall in oil prices to $30/bbl and recommending the sale of previous favorites like Seadrill and Hi-Crush Partners…
However, these past trends are NOT why I created this letter and I certainly have no desire to boast or brag.
I reference our success and experience calling some of the biggest cycles and trends in global markets over the past two decades because my colleague Roger Conrad and I have identified 2 of our highest conviction big ideas for investors to buy right now.
I’ll tell you more about each of these Profit Themes and how to take advantage in just a moment.
But first, you might be wondering where these big ideas come from.
And that brings me to this…
Homework, Deep Dive Research and
a Devil’s Advocate
Chances are every successful investor identifies their “Big Ideas” using a different process…
Mine involves a simple-yet-powerful discipline I learned long ago:
Twenty-two years old, four months out of graduate school and 2 months into my first real full-time job, I found myself seated at a conference table with more than a dozen colleagues, my boss and his boss.
Nervous, sleepless and over-caffeinated, I made my first stock pitch, recommending a handful of high-yield British banks including Lloyd’s and HSBC.
I’d done my homework and I knew these names inside and out. And that was a good thing since my new colleagues grilled me, asking me for every conceivable detail about each of these companies and the UK banking industry.
That research formed the basis of my first published stock report and the questions I was asked that day helped me develop a high-conviction thesis that resulted in sizable investment gains.
When I founded my firm, Capitalist Times Research, nearly 5 years ago we maintained that same discipline.
Every week, and usually several times per week, my co-founder Roger Conrad, managing editor Peter Staas and I hold an investment meeting to present stock and industry ideas, trends we’re watching and discuss our take on big picture macro trends.
Sometimes we invite others to join, including analysts with specialized knowledge of particular industry groups, countries or sectors.
You must do your homework before participating in this meeting…It’s not a “rubber stamp” or management by committee.
We all know it’s our job to challenge every thesis, evaluate all the facts and play devil’s advocate on every idea.
Out of these meetings we identify a handful of investing themes we’re truly excited about…High-conviction, wealth-generating ideas selected from all the sectors, industry groups and stocks we follow, analyze and research.
And that’s why we created Deep Dive Investing.
To identify and present these very best “Big Ideas” and focus recommendations – the best of the best — to a small group of VIP readers.
In just a moment, I’m going to show you how to gain access to all this research, including our top buy recommendations, model portfolio and member’s only podcasts with a risk-free trial to Deep Dive Investing.
This exclusive trial is available for a strictly limited time and only through this website as part of our Charter Member VIP Offer.
However, before I get into all that, I want to tell you a little more about 2 of these “Big Idea” Deep Dive Investing themes we’re recommending right now:
Profit Theme #1: Trouble Built on a Subprime Foundation
By all accounts it’s boom time for the US auto industry.
Last year, automakers sold 17.55 million new vehicles in the US, even better than the pre-crisis sales peak of 16.98 million vehicles in 2005. And, the auto business isn’t just about sheer volume, it’s about this:
SUVs and Light Trucks as a Percent of Total Auto Sales
In June, 65.4% of all new passenger vehicles sold in the US are sport utility vehicles (SUVs) and light trucks NOT cars.
That’s a record high.
And selling trucks and SUVs is a lot more lucrative for the automakers than selling smaller cars. You see, right now, the average new mid-sized car sold in America retails for about $25,966, the average mid-sized SUV for $40,045 and the average full-size pickup for $48,450 and that’s behind this:
Average New Vehicle Prices
With these more expensive, higher margin SUVs and trucks accounting for nearly 2 out of 3 vehicles sold in America, average vehicle prices are soaring, reaching a record high of over $35,700 at the end of last year, up from less than $30,000 at the end of 2009.
So, how are Americans buying all these expensive cars, trucks and SUVs?
Well, the economic recovery since the Great Recession of 2007-09 certainly helped drive some of the surge in sales and the big drop in gasoline prices has ignited SUV sales over the past three years. However, that’s NOT the real driver of the recent auto sales boom.
The more powerful trend: Easy auto credit.
Over the past two years, about 30% of all cars sold in America were leased, not purchased outright. That’s roughly double the share of cars leased at the top of the last boom in 2005-06.
By leasing rather than purchasing cars, especially at today’s rock-bottom rates, consumers can afford more car for a lower monthly payment.
However, there’s a dark side to leasing: While low cost leases juice sales in the short-run, the typical lease lasts 36 months and when a car comes off-lease it’s typically sold into the used car market. These lightly used, low mileage off-lease vehicles often compete with new cars for buyers’ attention.
And here’s the big problem: A record volume of leased cars over the past few years means a tidal wave of off-lease vehicles set to hit the market over the next few years:
Off-Lease Vehicles by Year
This year, 3.6 million vehicles are due to come off-lease, well above the prior record of about 3.4 million back in 2003. Next year, the supply of off-lease vehicles balloons to 4.1 million and by 2021, some projections show as many as 5 million cars, trucks and SUVs coming off lease and hitting the market.
But, I am here to tell you…this process and the damage it’s causing to the industry is already well underway.
The US auto market is already struggling to absorb the 3.6 million vehicles coming off lease in 2017. Thanks to the growing glut of nearly new cars, used vehicle prices are down 4.3 percent over the past year alone and the decline is accelerating.
So, you might be wondering why falling used car prices are such a big issue for the new car market.
As I said, one problem is that these recent-model used cars compete with new cars and the further used car prices fall, the more attractive these off-lease vehicles become. That’s likely a factor driving the decline in new car sales from an annualized pace over 17.5 million in 2016 to 16.4 million today. However, there are much more dangerous fallouts from the tidal wave of used car supply.
First, falling used car prices directly impact lease financing terms.
When you lease a car, you’re essentially financing the difference between your purchase price and the expected value of the car at the conclusion of the lease, known as the residual value. If the residual value declines, the amount you’re financing rises, and the lease payments lenders demand skyrocket.
And second, falling used car prices make lending money to purchase or lease cars much riskier.
Just consider, if a borrower defaults on a car loan or lease, the lender can repossess the car and sell it to recoup part of the value of the bad debt. When used car values are high, the recovery factor is healthy, reducing the risk of loss on the debt.
However, when used car prices fall as they have over the past 18 months, recovery factors fall as well.
That might not be a huge problem if it weren’t for one thing: Lenders have been making some very unconventional and risky loans, offering 8 and 10 year loan terms to make cars more affordable and extending credit even to subprime borrowers with FICO credit scores of 540 or lower.
In fact, some lenders specialize in lending to subprime borrowers. One of the largest subprime finance firms we cover lent $2.66 billion to borrowers with credit scores less than 640 and $1.137 billion to consumers with scores below 540 in the first quarter of 2017 alone.
Loans to these so-called Tier III credits is one of the fastest growing segments of the business.
Well, guess what?
According to data from the Federal Reserve, the portion of auto loans more than 90 days past due has been rising steadily since the end of 2014, reaching 3.82% in the first quarter this year. And subprime net losses (including collateral recovery through repossession) surged to more than 7.5% in February.
As you might expect, many of the biggest banks are already pulling back. As Wells Fargo CFO John Shrewsberry put it on the company’s second quarter conference call on July 14th:
“The $1.9 billion decline in our auto portfolio reflected lower origination volumes, which were down 29% compared with a year ago.
We’ve tightened credit underwriting standards in response to early signs of rising delinquencies in the industry and declining used car values.”
JP Morgan, Citi and Fifth Third are also retrenching from the market.
However, the big banks and the smaller more aggressive consumer finance firms are turning to an eerily familiar technique to keep the credit taps open: Packaging portfolios of auto loans into bonds called Asset Backed Securities (ABS). These ABS securities are then sold to investors, often offering the attraction of above-average income.
There are currently $196 billion worth of these auto loan ABS outstanding, up from around $115 billion in 2010 and growth has accelerated in recent years as hedge funds and other investors have been all-too-willing to buy these high-income notes in today’s pay-nothing interest rate world.
In the first quarter of 2017 alone, banks issued $7.1 billion worth of subprime ABS, up from $5.9 billion just one year earlier.
However, with default rates on some subprime loan portfolios topping 9% and used car prices and recovery values falling, there are already some early signs investors are shying away, demanding higher interest rates to accept the higher risk of defaults.
Do you see where all this is heading?
At a minimum, we see a steady decline in new car sales amid tightening credit conditions and plummeting used car prices over the next few years.
At worst, a more serious collapse in the ABS market could snap creditors’ wallets shut virtually overnight, even bankrupt some of the shakier consumer finance lenders and bring auto sales to a grinding halt.
I’d like to send you my detailed research presentation, including a quick-read executive summary, explaining exactly how we see the coming auto crunch playing out, including two stocks that are actually poised to benefit from the surge in used car and off-lease sales volumes over the next few years.
PLUS…I examine two stocks we view as particularly vulnerable to deteriorating auto credit markets and likely vehicle production cutbacks this fall among the major US automakers. I’ll also explain how we recommend playing the downside in these names to reduce your risk and maximize returns.
I’ll show you how to gain access to this detailed strategy session in just a few minutes. But first, that brings me to…
Profit Theme #2: Shale’s Biggest Threat And Biggest Opportunity
The US Geological Survey (USGS) estimates the Wolfcamp Shale formation in Texas contains more than 20 billion barrels of oil, 16 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 1.6 billion barrels of natural gas liquids.
That’s a total of 45 billion barrels of oil equivalent in just ONE of several productive oil-bearing rock layers underlying the vast Permian Basin spanning much of western Texas and eastern New Mexico.
At the DUG Permian Conference in Fort Worth this year, we examined evidence that confirms the Permian is likely the largest oilfield in the world thanks to new technologies and drilling techniques that are now unlocking more oil, gas and NGLs from the region than most thought possible less than 5 years ago.
The Permian is even larger than Saudi Arabia’s massive Ghawar field.
Total production has more than doubled in 5 years to 2.54 million bbl/day.
So, what could possibly stop the Permian Oil Boom?
Lower oil prices won’t stop it – after all, many wells in the region are profitable EVEN with oil at $40 per barrel or lower and it’s the only major onshore oil-producing region of the US to see production growth straight through the vicious 2014-2016 collapse in oil prices…
However, there’s ONE thing producers in the Permian region need above all else…A precious resource that’s CRUCIAL to drilling the massive two and three-mile long horizontal wells that have become commonplace across the Permian’s Midland and Delaware Basins.
The growing cost of this resource is one of the only real threats to the economics of wells in the region and the potential growth in production from this supergiant field.
I’m NOT talking about sand used as proppant in shale wells. In fact, producers’ ability to source quality sand from mines located in Texas, rather than from traditional distant sources in Wisconsin, is helping to lower the cost of this commodity delivered to the Permian. And, it’s upending the economics of sand mining firms and MLPs…
And, I’m not talking about pressure pumping capacity, access to drilling rigs or qualified labor…All are challenges; however, the industry has successfully been coping with cost pressures for all these commodities and services.
Here’s what’s really in short supply:
You see, the secret sauce when it comes to producing shale oil and natural gas is a technique called hydraulic fracturing or, more commonly, just “fracking.”
While the technologies can be complex and proprietary, the idea is simple – producers pump liquid and sand into the well under tremendous pressure to create fractures in the oil-bearing shale rock, aiding the flow of oil and gas into the well.
The sand, known as “proppant,” is there to keep the cracks created in the reservoir rock from closing once the pressure is removed.
So, what’s in fracturing fluid?
Fracturing fluid is over 90% water (Plus around 9.5% sand proppant).
And drilling and fracturing a single shale well in a field like the Permian Basin often requires 500,000 barrels of fresh water (21 million gallons), equivalent to 700 standard-sized truck tanker loads.
It’s estimated that developing the Wolfcamp Shale’s 45 billion barrels oil, gas and NGLs resources will require some 20 billion barrels (840 billion gallons) of water. And that’s just for one productive formation in one of the several leading US shale fields.
Over the past two years Roger and I have heard from executives producing oil and gas in the Permian, North Dakota’s Bakken Shale, the Marcellus gas field in Appalachia and Oklahoma’s SCOOP/STACK region…All have noted the growing challenges sourcing water for fracturing and disposing of the contaminated water produced after a well is drilled and completed.
In fact, at the DUG Permian Conference in April, we were told that water is the largest expense producers face and “the hardest to coordinate logistically.”
The good news: For many companies, the water problem is actually a huge opportunity. You see, water handling, transport and recycling infrastructure can reduce costs by up to 70%…Increasingly producers in regions like the Permian Basin are finding that building water infrastructure is both a key competitive advantage and, increasingly, a new source of revenues and profits.
And soaring water procurement and disposal costs are just one of several factors driving capital spending on water and wastewater infrastructure:
In 2008, there were 2 earthquakes in the State of Oklahoma registering over 3.0 on the Richter Scale. Last year, there were 623, including a damaging 5.0 quake that impacted the crucial Cushing storage hub late last year.
Compare Oklahoma’s seismic activity in the 80s to what’s common in recent years and the scope of the problem becomes clear:
Total Oklahoma Earthquakes Magnitude 3.0 and Higher
Between 1980 and 1989:
Source: Oklahoma Geological Survey, Google Maps
Since January 1, 2015:
Source: Oklahoma Geological Survey, Google Maps
Over the past 5 years, producers have ramped up drilling and production activity from the STACK/SCOOP fields of central Oklahoma, arguably one of the largest and most economic shale oil and gas finds in the US.
The culprit for all that seismic activity: NOT oil drilling or hydraulic fracturing but water disposal wells.
Historically, fracturing fluid that flows back out of a well after it’s completed is simply injected into what are known as “saltwater” disposal wells. In many cases, these disposal facilities are nothing more than played out oil and gas fields where the water can be injected and permanently stored underground.
However, injecting all those millions of gallons of water into disposal wells under pressure causes earthquakes and Oklahoma’s geology is particularly susceptible.
Oklahoma’s Corporation Commission and Governor Mary Fallin have taken some immediate steps to tackle the problem including, most notably, banning or limiting the use of disposal wells sited in areas where the geology is most sensitive to seismic activity.
As a result, the total number of earthquakes impacting the State appears to be falling somewhat from 2015’s record highs. However, that’s also further limiting already constrained wastewater disposal capacity while the incidence of significant tremors remains alarming.
The long-term and lowest-cost solution: Development of large-scale water recycling, transportation and storage that can reduce or even eliminate the need for wastewater disposal wells while reducing water delivery costs for producers by up to 70%.
In fact, those efforts are already underway…More on the companies that are already making money solving water disposal issues in just a moment…
› Road Weary
Just remember: Transporting 21 million gallons of water to drill a single shale well requires 700 truckloads of water and transporting wastewater from those wells requires still more truck ton miles.
And there were 475 shale wells drilled in the Permian Basin in the month of June 2017 alone – that’s a lot of heavy trucks traveling a lot of miles over roads across western Texas and New Mexico.
West Texas is flat country.
However, the massive Marcellus Shale gas field is in mountainous Appalachia, across rural regions of States like Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Just imagine: massive water trucks constantly rolling up and down mountains, traveling along secondary roads and highways day and night just to keep pace with all the wells being drilled in the region right now.
All that heavy traffic damages roads and the cost of keeping roads in good repair is rising.
But, what if produced water could be recycled at a plant located near the well, requiring minimal transport…And, what if that water could be reused to drill new wells?
That’s already starting to happen, as we’ll explain in just a moment…
› Fraud and Dishonesty
I must admit, this one shocked me and we hope it’s not pervasive.
There’s no doubt, there are plenty of reputable trucking firms operating in regions like the Permian Basin. However, we heard from a few producers earlier this year who highlighted a growing problem: underfilled trucks.
In other words, there have been cases of unscrupulous trucking firms billing their customers by the truckload (30,000 gallons or so) of wastewater transported from drill sites to disposal facilities.
Yet, those trucks don’t contain 30,000 gallons of water…We’re told that in some cases, trucks are only 50% full. That results in a higher fee for the trucking firm but it inflates costs for producers and hampers development by further restricting the already constrained capacity to deliver and dispose of water the industry desperately needs.
The solution: Increasingly, producers are relying on cheaper more efficient water pipeline systems and water recycling facilities located closer to the well which can dramatically ease logistical headaches and the need for high cost long-haul water trucking services.
› It’s Chemistry
Much of the water used by the shale industry is so-called produced water, meaning it’s either sourced from water-bearing rock formations in the same region or produce alongside oil and gas from other wells in the field.
As you might expect, water produced in different fields – or even different parts of the same field – has a different composition. That includes different dissolved minerals, PH and other properties.
Through years of trial and error, many producers have found that fracturing wells with locally sourced water can often boost well productivity compared to water transported from more distant sources. In other words, the basic chemistry of water found naturally in a region works most effectively in fields located in the same area.
And while the uplift might be minor, even a tiny change in well productivity can dramatically change the economics of a well, particularly in the current period of lower for longer oil and gas prices.
That’s another reason water recycling and transportation infrastructure can dramatically reduce costs for producers and boost profits…
Listen, Roger Conrad has identified the key investable trends in water and a host of companies that are already benefiting and profiting from the growing need to reduce water delivery and disposal costs including:
The Master Limited Partnership (MLP) offering a yield of 9.1% with water-related infrastructure in both the Permian Basin AND Oklahoma’s SCOOP/STACK fields…
The Permian-focused producer that’s developed one of the most innovative methods we know of for sourcing the water it needs while solving one of the biggest problems facing the city of Midland, Texas…
The European firm that’s constructing a revolutionary $275 million wastewater treatment plan in West Virginia for one of the largest gas producers in the Marcellus Shale, generating an immediate water cost savings of $150,000 per well and dramatically reducing costs associated with water transportation…
The world’s leading provider of technologies to service, monitor, protect and extend the life of water and wastewater transportation and storage infrastructure…
Water for Income: How producers in America’s prolific shale fields are building water infrastructure, recycling and treatment facilities to offer as a fee-based service to other producers, creating a stream of ongoing free cash flow that’s adding up to HUGE dividend and distribution income for investors…
I’d like to send you all of Roger Conrad’s report on the water and wastewater markets, including his top recommendations to buy right now, so you can get started profiting immediately.
And the two themes I’ve covered in this letter, are just a start. Sign up for a trial subscription to Deep Dive Investing today with absolutely no risk or obligation and I’ll give you immediate access to all our research and recommendations covering our 5 high-conviction “Big Idea” investment themes. We’ll send you reports explaining:
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› This small Connecticut-based bank is the dominant national provider of a type of account that’s grown from $10 billion in assets in 2010 to more than $50 billion by 2018 and it’s set to get a game-changing boost from Congress (with support from both sides of the aisle)…
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› Not ALL banks benefit from rising interest rates – the 1 simple metric you can use to differentiate the winners from the losers…
To my knowledge Deep Dive Investing is unique in the financial advisory newsletter business.
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