Issue

In this issue we examine the improving macro outlook for the United States and China and how this had led to EPS forecast upgrades by Street analysts and improving sentiment within the global fund manager community.  With the prospect of a bear market essentially removed, we recommend that investors worry less about risk levels in their portfolios and more about the type of exposure within risk assets.

A lot has changed over the past 4 months. As recently as November 7^th, the Fed Funds futures market was pricing in a better than 1-in-3 shot the upper bound of the central bank’s target range for rates would be 3.25% or higher by the end of 2019.

In this issue we look at the prospects for the U.S. economy examining leading indicators and cyclical sectors such as housing and auto manufacturing. We also look at the fixed income market for hints as to investors’ views on the economy and interpret the slope of the yield curve as well as moves in credit markets.

We examine the behavior of credit spreads ahead of major stock market peaks and discuss the early warning signs they often provide. We then discuss what credit spreads suggest about the current market cycle.

Our latest take on the outlook for the economy and markets including a discussion with our London-based Contributor.

Rising interest rates, a stock market in its 10th year and the rise of ETFs have created a challenging but still greatly rewarding environment for income investing. This issue, we’re launching an Actively Managed Income Portfolio to take advantage, as well as to prepare income seekers for the next phase of the market cycle. We discuss the current environment for income investing and key dividend paying sectors as well as strategy and tactics. And we introduce the first members of our weighted model $100,000 portfolio, which can be applied to investments of any size.

This is an update on bond market developments and their implications for the stock market

High yield bonds have dramatically outperformed investment grade debt this year, thanks to a stronger economy, a dearth of defaults, the recovery of the energy sector and a shortage of supply caused by fewer new issues and ETF buying. Several of these trends appear near to running their course. But there are still strong values among individual high yield bonds and even mutual funds. This briefing highlights a basket of high yield bond buys that should continue producing strong returns and high yields even if the current positive macro environment sours.

Each quarter the Deep Dive Investing Team including myself, Roger Conrad, Yiannis Mostrous and Mr. X (our London-based guest contributor) meet to discuss our big picture outlook for the global economy and markets and new investment ideas or trends we’re following.

The focus of our discussion is a detailed, 33-slide deck that covers a long list of economic and market indicators we’ve been following for years including slides covering market valuations, corporate profits and margins, credit and bond markets, commodities, institutional money flows and economic data.

The purpose is not to develop a set-in-stone outlook but to set up a framework for keeping tabs on market developments, trends to watch and our strategies for investing in the current environment.

In this issue of Deep Dive Investing, I discuss some of our conclusions and takeaways from our quarterly meeting with our London-based guest contributor.

Later this evening, following the market close, we will release a separate flash alert that includes an update of our Active Total Return Portfolio and recommendations.

Most of our Focus List and Active Total Return Portfolio recommendations have now reported second quarter earnings.

In this issue, Elliott explains what we mean by “Growth” investing and how it differs from the common usage of the term in the mainstream and financial media.

In addition, Elliott offers an update of returns in the Active Total Return Portfolio and a rundown (and updated advice) on every recommendation that’s reported earnings to date.

The US stock market is more expensive today than it has been in 97.7% of months since January 1881 and those excesses are partly driven by the shift in favor of passive/ETF and quantitative investing strategies. The unprecedented wave of global quantitative easing and monetary stimulus since the 2007-09 financial crisis has further fueled passive investing and valuation excesses.

To generate superior profits in this environment we’re focused on looking for inefficiencies and an investment “edge” in parts of the market the crowd ignores.

We’re introducing a new actively managed model portfolio to offer additional guidance on what stocks to buy, when and how to buy them, when to sell and how to manage growing market risks as we approach the end of the cycle.

Roger Conrad highlights our income investing strategy for the second half of 2018 at a time of tightening Federal Reserve policy, rising stock market volatility and increased influence of algorithm-managed ETFs. He highlights emerging bargains in six sectors offering an uncommon combination of high yields, safety and growth in an aging bull market.

Roger Conrad offers some of his key takeaways from the 2018 MLP & Energy Infrastructure Conference held in Orlando, Florida. He also does a deep-dive look at 3 MLPs to buy right now and 2 MLPs to sell or avoid.

Roger Conrad examines the midstream energy industry and some of the key trends he’s watching at the MLP & Energy Infrastructure Conference in Orlando, Florida this year. He also updates all of the Midstream energy stocks recommended in Deep Dive.

Elliott examines global equity and credit markets with a special guest contributor joining via phone from London. He also updates the Growth Focus List recommendations including a strategy for taking profits on one of our biggest winners to date.